The MLB and the NFL are the two of the big 4 North American leagues which do not put more than half of their league in the post-season. A big reason why the MLB does this is because of the 162 game regular season. There is an opinion that the regular season should matter, teams should have to show up and perform at more than a league average pace to be rewarded with the opportunity of competing for a championship.
Which would be all good and well, except 8 of the 30 MLB franchises are currently without a World Series title, and the last time a small market team even made the fall classic was the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. Since then the AL has been represented by some combination of the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, and Rangers, while the NL has seen the only the Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies make it. From the list of teams with the highest payroll per 2014, the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 13 made it (St. Louis is a fantastically run franchise by the way). The only teams in the top 8 without a World Series appearance in the last 5 seasons are the Angels and Dodgers, who both stand a solid chance at making it this season.
This is right about the time someone should mention the A's and the $90 million payroll. Yeah this is an impressive season for them and they have made a lot of fantastic moves. But they aren't built to be a dynasty, they have simply gone all-in on this season. They have 4 players signed for next season on $29 million with Josh Donaldson and others set to be making some big money in arbitration. All this for a team that will likely be without Lester, Cespedes, and Gomes, and has maybe a year left of Samardzija and Jaso.
The point is that baseball is all about the haves and have-nots. People see an expanded postseason as a chance for an increase in parity. However all it will do is allow the haves to rest their good players once they are in a coasting position (which depending on the number of postseason teams could be mid-August) while the have nots scrap out the last few wins to make the postseason and get roasted in the first few rounds.
So here's an idea for a mutable postseason, one which expands and contracts based on the way the season has gone, and can feature anywhere from 16 to 4 teams. It will never happen, but is a cool thing to fantasize about.
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Super Cool Postseason
The super cool postseason would only require 4 teams to make the postseason. Those four teams are the two best division champions (by record) in each league. Now that Houston moved to the AL and we're at 5 teams across the board, this is pretty straightforward. Those two teams could go straight to the League Championship Series if no other teams qualify.
Why this is cool: This eliminates 82-win NL West teams from making the postseason, and doesn't reward mid 80-win teams if they are in a division where every team is mailing it in to rebuild.
Other teams qualify by competing reasonably close to those two teams. For each two extra teams that qualify, the requirements become lower. This means that for a 3rd and/or 4th team to qualify, those teams must be within 5 wins of the 2nd place team and 10 wins of the 1st place team. If there are 4 qualified teams, a 5th and 6th team can qualify if they are within 3 wins of the 4th place team. If there are 6 qualified teams, a 7th and 8th team can qualify if they are within 2 wins of the 6th place team. Series are 3, 3, 5, and 7 games in length for each league's playoffs before the World Series. Series are 1-1-1 if 3 games, 2-2-1 if 5 games, and 2-2-1-1-1 if 7 games.
Byes for each round depend on how many teams make the postseason:
2: 0 byes
3: 1 bye for the 1st seeded team
4: 0 byes
5: 3 byes for the top 3 seeded teams
6: 2 byes for top 2 teams
7: 3 byes for the top 3 seeded teams
8: 0 byes
Are you confused? Yeah that's understandable, but let's focus on a few key points of this.
- You must be within 10 wins of the best team in the league to qualify
- Having the best record in the league doesn't assure you of a 1st seed in your league
- The better a good team plays, the more they thin their postseason competition
- Teams that are relegated to wildcard status don't blow their ace in a one game playoff
- Teams have an incentive to finish the season as strongly as possible even after clinching home field for the postseason
So let's look at some hypothetical from the last few postseasons to see how this system would have played out.
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2013 Playoffs
AL: Boston (1), Oakland (2), Detroit (3), Cleveland (4), Tampa Bay (5), Texas (6)
NL: St. Louis (1), Atlanta (2), Pittsburgh (3), Los Angeles (4), Cincinnati (5)
In the AL, the winner of Texas and Detroit plays Oakland, and the winner of Cleveland and Tampa Bay plays Boston. This features some intriguing 3 game series between the 3 teams that fought down to the wire for the final wildcard spot as well as penalizing the Tigers by forcing them to take 2 of 3 from the Rangers to stay alive.
In the NL, the winner of a 3 game series between Los Angeles and Cincinnati plays St. Louis, and Atlanta plays Pittsburgh. This is very cool because it presents a possible NLDS with 3 NL Central teams and ups the pressure of the Dodgers for limping out of a weak NL West.
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2012 Playoffs
AL: New York (1), Oakland (2), Texas (3), Baltimore (4), Tampa Bay (5)
NL: Washington (1), Cincinnati (2), San Francisco (3), Atlanta (4)
The AL Pennant winning Tigers don't make the postseason, and instead the Orioles and Rays play a 3 game series to determine who faces the Yankees. Meanwhile Oakland and Texas showdown for AL West rep in the playoffs.
The Cardinals don't get a shot at the Braves and instead it's a classic 4 team playoff with series between the Nats and Braves, as well as the Reds and Giants.
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2011 Playoffs
AL: New York (1), Texas (2), Detroit (3), Tampa Bay (4), Boston (5)
NL: Philadelphia (1), Milwaukee (2), Arizona (3)
In the AL, the Sox get a shot against the Rays in a 3 game series, while a 102 win Phillies team gets a bye into the NLCS.
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2010 Playoffs
AL: Tampa Bay (1), Minnesota (2), New York (3), Texas (4), Boston (5), Chicago (6)
NL: Philadelphia (1), San Francisco (2), Cincinnati (3), Atlanta (4), San Diego (5)
The Yankees are forced into a 3 game series with the White Sox despite the 2nd best record in the league, while the Twins play the winner of the Rangers and Red Sox.
The Padres make the postseason with a chance to upset Atlanta to play the Phillies in the NLDS.
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2009 Playoffs
AL: New York (1), Los Angeles (2), Boston (3)
NL: Los Angeles (1), Philadelphia (2), Colorado (3), St. Louis (4), San Francisco (5)
The Sox and Angels battle it out in the only ALDS series, while the Giants and Cardinals get a 3 game series before the NLDS begins.
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Over this small sample size, between 8 and 11 teams make the postseason. 100+ win teams get rewarded with a shorter path to the World Series, while some straggling division winners miss the postseason altogether.
Another key point is that teams get to throw their ace twice in the division series under this model. With a 3-4 man postseason rotation, they pitch their ace in the wild card round(s) once and twice in the division and league championship series. Right now the one game playoff makes that much more difficult and puts the wildcard team at a bigger disadvantage than it was under the old 4 team model.
Will anyone ever consider this? No. But it's a fun thing to think about.
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