Ask yourself why you're pinch-hitting. The answer should be pretty darn straightforward. You're expecting the batter to have a better result than the resulting hitter.
However, dating back to 2004, the league average WAA for pinch hitters has always been below 0.0. In other words, pinch hitters have been a detriment to the team almost exclusively, meaning they are used incorrectly, and that any success the have is more due to random chance that a great managerial decision.
From 2011-2013, the Texas Rangers posted 3 consecutive seasons with a pinch-hitter WAA above 0. Those seasons (0.4, 0.2, 0.1 respectively) represent the only time in the last decade a team made out better than average by using a pinch hitter in more than two consecutive seasons. On the average, for every franchise, the result is poor.
There isn't much consistency either. The Pirates from 2010-2011 are the only Franchise to finish last in consecutive seasons, and the Rangers from above are the only team with a streak of finishing first. So paired with an average of around -0.8, there seems to be almost no methodology to correctly selecting a pinch-hitter.
Obviously the expectations aren't for them to be great hitters. Great hitters aren't usually available off the bench and aren't the people who get pinch hit for. But teams being unable to generate league average offensive despite being able to replace weaknesses in the lineups with strengths is a pretty big failure or roster building. Something that can cost some crucial games over the long haul.
Monday, August 25, 2014
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Postseason Fantasy Land
With Bud Selig retiring in the coming months, a lot of attention has been paid to his legacy. Something that has been mulled over by many is his impact on the postseason of Major League Baseball, which currently stands at 10 teams.
The MLB and the NFL are the two of the big 4 North American leagues which do not put more than half of their league in the post-season. A big reason why the MLB does this is because of the 162 game regular season. There is an opinion that the regular season should matter, teams should have to show up and perform at more than a league average pace to be rewarded with the opportunity of competing for a championship.
Which would be all good and well, except 8 of the 30 MLB franchises are currently without a World Series title, and the last time a small market team even made the fall classic was the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. Since then the AL has been represented by some combination of the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, and Rangers, while the NL has seen the only the Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies make it. From the list of teams with the highest payroll per 2014, the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 13 made it (St. Louis is a fantastically run franchise by the way). The only teams in the top 8 without a World Series appearance in the last 5 seasons are the Angels and Dodgers, who both stand a solid chance at making it this season.
This is right about the time someone should mention the A's and the $90 million payroll. Yeah this is an impressive season for them and they have made a lot of fantastic moves. But they aren't built to be a dynasty, they have simply gone all-in on this season. They have 4 players signed for next season on $29 million with Josh Donaldson and others set to be making some big money in arbitration. All this for a team that will likely be without Lester, Cespedes, and Gomes, and has maybe a year left of Samardzija and Jaso.
The point is that baseball is all about the haves and have-nots. People see an expanded postseason as a chance for an increase in parity. However all it will do is allow the haves to rest their good players once they are in a coasting position (which depending on the number of postseason teams could be mid-August) while the have nots scrap out the last few wins to make the postseason and get roasted in the first few rounds.
So here's an idea for a mutable postseason, one which expands and contracts based on the way the season has gone, and can feature anywhere from 16 to 4 teams. It will never happen, but is a cool thing to fantasize about.
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Super Cool Postseason
The super cool postseason would only require 4 teams to make the postseason. Those four teams are the two best division champions (by record) in each league. Now that Houston moved to the AL and we're at 5 teams across the board, this is pretty straightforward. Those two teams could go straight to the League Championship Series if no other teams qualify.
Why this is cool: This eliminates 82-win NL West teams from making the postseason, and doesn't reward mid 80-win teams if they are in a division where every team is mailing it in to rebuild.
Other teams qualify by competing reasonably close to those two teams. For each two extra teams that qualify, the requirements become lower. This means that for a 3rd and/or 4th team to qualify, those teams must be within 5 wins of the 2nd place team and 10 wins of the 1st place team. If there are 4 qualified teams, a 5th and 6th team can qualify if they are within 3 wins of the 4th place team. If there are 6 qualified teams, a 7th and 8th team can qualify if they are within 2 wins of the 6th place team. Series are 3, 3, 5, and 7 games in length for each league's playoffs before the World Series. Series are 1-1-1 if 3 games, 2-2-1 if 5 games, and 2-2-1-1-1 if 7 games.
Byes for each round depend on how many teams make the postseason:
2: 0 byes
3: 1 bye for the 1st seeded team
4: 0 byes
5: 3 byes for the top 3 seeded teams
6: 2 byes for top 2 teams
7: 3 byes for the top 3 seeded teams
8: 0 byes
Are you confused? Yeah that's understandable, but let's focus on a few key points of this.
The MLB and the NFL are the two of the big 4 North American leagues which do not put more than half of their league in the post-season. A big reason why the MLB does this is because of the 162 game regular season. There is an opinion that the regular season should matter, teams should have to show up and perform at more than a league average pace to be rewarded with the opportunity of competing for a championship.
Which would be all good and well, except 8 of the 30 MLB franchises are currently without a World Series title, and the last time a small market team even made the fall classic was the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. Since then the AL has been represented by some combination of the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, and Rangers, while the NL has seen the only the Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies make it. From the list of teams with the highest payroll per 2014, the numbers 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, and 13 made it (St. Louis is a fantastically run franchise by the way). The only teams in the top 8 without a World Series appearance in the last 5 seasons are the Angels and Dodgers, who both stand a solid chance at making it this season.
This is right about the time someone should mention the A's and the $90 million payroll. Yeah this is an impressive season for them and they have made a lot of fantastic moves. But they aren't built to be a dynasty, they have simply gone all-in on this season. They have 4 players signed for next season on $29 million with Josh Donaldson and others set to be making some big money in arbitration. All this for a team that will likely be without Lester, Cespedes, and Gomes, and has maybe a year left of Samardzija and Jaso.
The point is that baseball is all about the haves and have-nots. People see an expanded postseason as a chance for an increase in parity. However all it will do is allow the haves to rest their good players once they are in a coasting position (which depending on the number of postseason teams could be mid-August) while the have nots scrap out the last few wins to make the postseason and get roasted in the first few rounds.
So here's an idea for a mutable postseason, one which expands and contracts based on the way the season has gone, and can feature anywhere from 16 to 4 teams. It will never happen, but is a cool thing to fantasize about.
---
Super Cool Postseason
The super cool postseason would only require 4 teams to make the postseason. Those four teams are the two best division champions (by record) in each league. Now that Houston moved to the AL and we're at 5 teams across the board, this is pretty straightforward. Those two teams could go straight to the League Championship Series if no other teams qualify.
Why this is cool: This eliminates 82-win NL West teams from making the postseason, and doesn't reward mid 80-win teams if they are in a division where every team is mailing it in to rebuild.
Other teams qualify by competing reasonably close to those two teams. For each two extra teams that qualify, the requirements become lower. This means that for a 3rd and/or 4th team to qualify, those teams must be within 5 wins of the 2nd place team and 10 wins of the 1st place team. If there are 4 qualified teams, a 5th and 6th team can qualify if they are within 3 wins of the 4th place team. If there are 6 qualified teams, a 7th and 8th team can qualify if they are within 2 wins of the 6th place team. Series are 3, 3, 5, and 7 games in length for each league's playoffs before the World Series. Series are 1-1-1 if 3 games, 2-2-1 if 5 games, and 2-2-1-1-1 if 7 games.
Byes for each round depend on how many teams make the postseason:
2: 0 byes
3: 1 bye for the 1st seeded team
4: 0 byes
5: 3 byes for the top 3 seeded teams
6: 2 byes for top 2 teams
7: 3 byes for the top 3 seeded teams
8: 0 byes
Are you confused? Yeah that's understandable, but let's focus on a few key points of this.
- You must be within 10 wins of the best team in the league to qualify
- Having the best record in the league doesn't assure you of a 1st seed in your league
- The better a good team plays, the more they thin their postseason competition
- Teams that are relegated to wildcard status don't blow their ace in a one game playoff
- Teams have an incentive to finish the season as strongly as possible even after clinching home field for the postseason
So let's look at some hypothetical from the last few postseasons to see how this system would have played out.
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2013 Playoffs
AL: Boston (1), Oakland (2), Detroit (3), Cleveland (4), Tampa Bay (5), Texas (6)
NL: St. Louis (1), Atlanta (2), Pittsburgh (3), Los Angeles (4), Cincinnati (5)
In the AL, the winner of Texas and Detroit plays Oakland, and the winner of Cleveland and Tampa Bay plays Boston. This features some intriguing 3 game series between the 3 teams that fought down to the wire for the final wildcard spot as well as penalizing the Tigers by forcing them to take 2 of 3 from the Rangers to stay alive.
In the NL, the winner of a 3 game series between Los Angeles and Cincinnati plays St. Louis, and Atlanta plays Pittsburgh. This is very cool because it presents a possible NLDS with 3 NL Central teams and ups the pressure of the Dodgers for limping out of a weak NL West.
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2012 Playoffs
AL: New York (1), Oakland (2), Texas (3), Baltimore (4), Tampa Bay (5)
NL: Washington (1), Cincinnati (2), San Francisco (3), Atlanta (4)
The AL Pennant winning Tigers don't make the postseason, and instead the Orioles and Rays play a 3 game series to determine who faces the Yankees. Meanwhile Oakland and Texas showdown for AL West rep in the playoffs.
The Cardinals don't get a shot at the Braves and instead it's a classic 4 team playoff with series between the Nats and Braves, as well as the Reds and Giants.
---
2011 Playoffs
AL: New York (1), Texas (2), Detroit (3), Tampa Bay (4), Boston (5)
NL: Philadelphia (1), Milwaukee (2), Arizona (3)
In the AL, the Sox get a shot against the Rays in a 3 game series, while a 102 win Phillies team gets a bye into the NLCS.
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2010 Playoffs
AL: Tampa Bay (1), Minnesota (2), New York (3), Texas (4), Boston (5), Chicago (6)
NL: Philadelphia (1), San Francisco (2), Cincinnati (3), Atlanta (4), San Diego (5)
The Yankees are forced into a 3 game series with the White Sox despite the 2nd best record in the league, while the Twins play the winner of the Rangers and Red Sox.
The Padres make the postseason with a chance to upset Atlanta to play the Phillies in the NLDS.
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2009 Playoffs
AL: New York (1), Los Angeles (2), Boston (3)
NL: Los Angeles (1), Philadelphia (2), Colorado (3), St. Louis (4), San Francisco (5)
The Sox and Angels battle it out in the only ALDS series, while the Giants and Cardinals get a 3 game series before the NLDS begins.
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Over this small sample size, between 8 and 11 teams make the postseason. 100+ win teams get rewarded with a shorter path to the World Series, while some straggling division winners miss the postseason altogether.
Another key point is that teams get to throw their ace twice in the division series under this model. With a 3-4 man postseason rotation, they pitch their ace in the wild card round(s) once and twice in the division and league championship series. Right now the one game playoff makes that much more difficult and puts the wildcard team at a bigger disadvantage than it was under the old 4 team model.
Will anyone ever consider this? No. But it's a fun thing to think about.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
The Power Question
It is rather taken for granted that there are four primary batting attributes, Contact and Power versus left-handed and right-handed pitching. However I would contest that we don't really need that. This leads into a larger discussion about the way hitting systems are configured in general, but power seems to be the glaringly obvious problem.
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Power is generated from weight transfer and bat speed. It is a byproduct of the physical swing. A swing with good mechanics by a strong hitter will obviously deliver the most power.
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In video games, we see this power attribute applied versus both lefties and righties, as if by some bizarre magic hitters lose strength or bat speed when someone is pitching for and different angle.
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Below is a sample of some major league hitters. It displays how frequently they hit home runs versus lefties and versus righties per fangraphs.
It's admittedly a small sample size, but among them, there isn't anyone who has significantly different power depending on the pitcher. The two most interesting cases are Teixeira and Jeter. For Teixeira, being a switch hitter makes everything wonky. I'd be willing to go ahead and say that he likely has a different approach to the plate because he standing in a different batter's box depending on the handedness of the pitcher.
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Power is generated from weight transfer and bat speed. It is a byproduct of the physical swing. A swing with good mechanics by a strong hitter will obviously deliver the most power.
---
In video games, we see this power attribute applied versus both lefties and righties, as if by some bizarre magic hitters lose strength or bat speed when someone is pitching for and different angle.
---
Below is a sample of some major league hitters. It displays how frequently they hit home runs versus lefties and versus righties per fangraphs.
| Player Name | PA/HR (vs. RHP) | PA/HR (vs. LHP) | PA/H (vs. RHP) | PA/H (vs. LHP) | HR% (vs. RHP) | HR% (vs. LHP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Albert Pujols
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Joey Votto
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Jose Bautista
|
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Mark Teixeira
|
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Victor Martinez
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Jimmy Rollins
|
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Mark Reynolds
|
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Derek Jeter
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Jose Reyes
|
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Ryan Howard
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It's admittedly a small sample size, but among them, there isn't anyone who has significantly different power depending on the pitcher. The two most interesting cases are Teixeira and Jeter. For Teixeira, being a switch hitter makes everything wonky. I'd be willing to go ahead and say that he likely has a different approach to the plate because he standing in a different batter's box depending on the handedness of the pitcher.
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Of course, Jimmy Rollins is remarkably consistent despite also being a switch hitter. So perhaps my hypothesis needs more test subjects before we right off Tex's change to being a switch hitter.
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Getting back to Jeter, he is interesting because he has one of the most dramatic changes in not just homers, but in overall hitting between lefties and righties. He hits left handed pitchers more often and harder than righties, and has had a full career of taking advantage of pulling the ball down the left field line in Yankee Stadium, something exacerbated by a hanging breaking ball from a lefty.
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However even in that case with Jeter, he is only hitting 103 homeruns against lefties for every 100 he hits against righties, everything else being equal. That's not exactly enough to really build a case on Jeter having more lefty power than righty power.
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The problem is that Jeter is (behind the switch hitting Teixeira) the best case that can be made for a discernible difference. For most of the above 10 hitters, it doesn't really appear that distance they are hitting the ball is at all based on the handedness of the pitcher.
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So why is it in games? Are we just catering to tradition, or something that makes the simulation give realistic results? Are there people who really think Ryan Howard is hitting the ball twice as hard when a righty is on the hill? The whole hitting approach needs to be reexamined from the catcher's view, see the ball, hit the ball, hope the attributes are lined up well model that has been around for almost 30 years now.
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Baseball Games
This blog is about baseball, but it's mostly about baseball games. Not the games the players play, but the games everyone else plays. Why is the sports video game experience so far removed from the traditional sporting experience? What can be done to fix it?
Consider this blog an examination of game mechanics, and how the correlate to reality, and what things we should think about in regards to changing them for the better.
Consider this blog an examination of game mechanics, and how the correlate to reality, and what things we should think about in regards to changing them for the better.
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